Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
