A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
