Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
